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Did PAP really lose Punggol East because of "by-election" effect?

Blackbox Research Infographics on the issues that swayed the Punggol East voters in the recently by-election. While the survey hints of the "by-election" effect, there are also other factors which swayed the 10% swing vote for a Wokers' Party victory.


59% surveyed highlighted that having an Opposition MP in Parliament wasn't a disadvantage and it was found that out of this 59%, 73% were under 40.  This highlights the possibility of the "by-election" effect that the PAP attributed their lost to Workers' Party.

17% surveyed felt that the PAP government wasn't listening to them and out of this 21% were under 40. Those above 40 were more likely attribute "cost of living" as a reason for their voting choice.

This is extremely significant as it shows clearly that the younger generation wants a government that listens to them and the older generation wants a solution to the current rising cost of inflation. I believe that if there was a survey done for the entire island of Singapore, the results would also be similar. 

Another interesting nugget about the data is that women were more likely to say that this by-election was a report card on the PAP. This signifies that the Palmer affairs, which was the reason for the by-election, was also a contributing factor to why the PAP lost. 

Although this was Desmond Lim 2nd attempt at Punggol East, newcomer Kenneth J. was found to have done better during the campaigning period. 

This highlights that Desmond's decision not to do a physical onsite rally was a bad choice, even though he had a few thousand views on Youtube. 

A physical onsite rally is still as important even in today's digital age. Many still see the value of a physical value and being at the site, even if you are not part of the constituent, is just as important of the campaigning process. 

Quality of candidate was found to be way below the top 5 voting issues mentioned while the expected "cost of living" was at number one. 

In summary, this means that if PAP do not address issues like cost of living, housing affordability, Government not listening, public transport by the next general elections, the Singapore voters will be no longer be swayed by the quality of candidates or the party, but by one who can have real solutions in place to solve these issues.


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